{"id":1458,"date":"2014-01-30T23:22:40","date_gmt":"2014-01-30T21:22:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/?p=1458"},"modified":"2014-01-30T23:23:30","modified_gmt":"2014-01-30T21:23:30","slug":"pas-gecme-gecmeme-kararinin-psikolojisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/?p=1458","title":{"rendered":"PAS GE\u00c7ME \/ GE\u00c7MEME KARARININ PS\u0130KOLOJ\u0130S\u0130"},"content":{"rendered":"

1 Haziran 1999 gecesi Dallas’tan kalkan American Airlines\u2019\u0131n MD-82 u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Arkansas – Little Rock meydan\u0131na inmesine saniyeler kala, f\u0131rt\u0131na ve \u00f6n cama gelen yo\u011fun ya\u011fmur y\u00fcz\u00fcnden pist g\u00f6r\u00fclemez hale gelmi\u015fti. Birka\u00e7 saniye sonra pisti g\u00f6ren kaptan, 200 ft irtifada yan r\u00fczg\u00e2rlarla u\u011fra\u015farak pisti ortalamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu arada yere yak\u0131nl\u0131k uyar\u0131 sistemi 2 kez piste \u00e7arpma uyar\u0131s\u0131 verdi. F\/O, kaptana meydan turu \u00f6nermeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc ama bunu s\u00f6yleseydi muhtemelen reddedilecekti; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc kaptan ini\u015fe kilitlenmi\u015fti, bir an \u00f6nce inmek istiyordu. Sadece kaptan de\u011fil di\u011fer ekip de bu modda idiler. Asl\u0131nda son yakla\u015fmada u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n hava frenlerini otomatik olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 unutmu\u015f ve ground spoiler’lerin a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu teyit etmemi\u015flerdi. Bu hatalar\u0131n sonucu olarak frenleme performans\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalm\u0131\u015f olan u\u00e7ak, pistte sa\u011fa sola 16 dereceye varan a\u00e7\u0131larla y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftiriyordu. Sonunda sol taraftan pistten \u00e7\u0131karak yakla\u015fma \u0131\u015f\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n demir desteklerine \u00e7arpan u\u00e7akta pilot dahil 11 ki\u015fi \u00f6ld\u00fc, 83 ki\u015fi yaraland\u0131… American Airlines sorumlulu\u011fu kabul ederek milyonlarca dolar tazminat \u00f6dedi. 5 y\u0131l sonraki kazada ya\u015famlar\u0131n\u0131 kaybedenlerin an\u0131s\u0131na yap\u0131lan t\u00f6rende, bir kazazede, kaptan pilot R. Buschmann’\u0131n an\u0131s\u0131na sayg\u0131 g\u00f6stermeyi \u015fiddetle reddetti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pas ge\u00e7mek gerekti\u011fi halde ini\u015f \u0131srar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnden benzerli\u011fi olan bir olay 1994 y\u0131l\u0131nda Van’da ya\u015fand\u0131. O g\u00fcn Van meydan\u0131nda sis ve tipi vard\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f mesafesi \u00e7ok azd\u0131; pist \u0131\u015f\u0131klar\u0131 yetersiz oldu\u011fu gibi, ILS cihaz\u0131 da yoktu. Kulenin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ankara’ya d\u00f6nme \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kaptan ba\u015ftan kabul etti, sonra F\/O’nun itiraz\u0131na ra\u011fmen ini\u015f denemesi yapmaya karar verdi; \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc denemede Kale Tepesi mevkiinde \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131. Bu CFIT kazas\u0131nda 6 m\u00fcrettebat ve 49 yolcu \u00f6ld\u00fc. Diyarbak\u0131r’da 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen feci kaza da tipik bir pas ge\u00e7meme ve ini\u015f \u0131srar\u0131 olay\u0131 idi. Bu meydanda da ILS cihaz\u0131 yoktu, pilot pisti sis nedeniyle bir g\u00f6r\u00fcyor bir g\u00f6remiyordu. Daha \u00f6nceki askeri pilotluk d\u00f6neminde ayn\u0131 piste defalarca inmi\u015f olman\u0131n g\u00fcveni ile ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorlayarak inebilece\u011fine karar verdi, ama olmad\u0131; u\u00e7ak \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131, 75 ki\u015fi \u00f6ld\u00fc…<\/p>\n

\u00c7ok a\u00e7\u0131k ki, bu olaylarda pilotlar pas ge\u00e7me (go around)<\/em> karar\u0131 vermi\u015f ve ba\u015fka meydanlara y\u00f6nelmi\u015f olsalard\u0131 bu kazalar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyecek, pilotlar kendileriyle birlikte bir\u00e7ok insan\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne sebep olmayacakt\u0131. Pilotu b\u00f6ylesi dramatik kazalara g\u00f6t\u00fcren s\u00fcre\u00e7te sinsice rol oynayan psikolojik fakt\u00f6rleri mercek alt\u0131na almak gerekir. Belki \u00e7ok say\u0131da ba\u015fka fakt\u00f6rler de devrede olabilir, ama en g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpanlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki ba\u015fl\u0131klar alt\u0131nda toplayabiliriz:<\/p>\n

1. Karar verme psikolojisi:<\/strong> Kale \u00f6n\u00fcnde aya\u011f\u0131na top gelen bir futbolcu ne yapar? Ya topu do\u011frudan kaleye vurur, ya \u00e7al\u0131m at\u0131p \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131ktan sonra \u015fut atar, ya da risk de\u011ferlendirmesi yaparak vurmaktan vaz ge\u00e7ip daha uygun birine pas verir… Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te olay\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f kavrama, ego h\u0131rslar\u0131, inisiyatif al\u0131p-almama, riske girip-girmeme, korkular veya kahraman olma arzular\u0131 beyinde cirit atmaktad\u0131r. Saniyeler i\u00e7inde verece\u011fi bir karar ma\u00e7\u0131n kaderini belirleyecek kadar \u00f6nemli olabilir…<\/p>\n

Karar verme, psikolojik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerle i\u00e7 i\u00e7e bir bili\u015fsel i\u015flemdir. Duyu organlar\u0131ndan gelen alg\u0131lar ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen bilgiler, her insan\u0131n beyninde oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131lan bir ‘kara kutuda’ i\u015flemden ge\u00e7er (information processing).<\/em> \u0130\u00e7inde ki\u015fiye \u00f6zel travmalar, korkular, \u00f6zlemler, tak\u0131nt\u0131lar, kompleksler, \u00f6ncelikler, vs. bulunan kara kutuya giren bilgiler (otomasyon sistemlerinin aksine,) ki\u015fiden ki\u015fiye farkl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde i\u015flenir. B\u00fct\u00fcn e\u011fitim, talimat, \u00e7eklist, direktif ve SOP’lerin amac\u0131, insana ait bu \u00e7e\u015fitlilik ve keyfilik g\u00f6steren kararlar\u0131 standardize etmek, s\u00fcbjektif unsurlar\u0131 minimize etmektir.<\/p>\n

2. Ki\u015filik yap\u0131s\u0131:<\/strong> \u015eizoid, paranoid, obsesif, narsistik, histerik, \u00e7ekingen, antisosyal, s\u0131n\u0131r, vb. gibi K\u0130\u015e\u0130L\u0130K BOZUKLU\u011eU olan insanlar u\u00e7u\u015fa kabul edilmezler, ya da bu bozukluklar\u0131 tespit edilen pilotlar u\u00e7u\u015ftan ay\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rlar. Ancak bir\u00e7ok insanda ki\u015filik bozuklu\u011fu derecesinde olmasa da; K\u0130\u015e\u0130L\u0130K \u00d6ZELL\u0130\u011e\u0130 derecesinde \u00e7ekingen, paranoid, obsesif, narsistik, vs. unsurlar bulunuyor olabilir. Pas ge\u00e7mek ya da ge\u00e7memek karar\u0131n\u0131 verme an\u0131nda, pilotun ki\u015filik yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki bu g\u00f6rece hafif unsurlarla uyumlu baz\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc\u015f ve davran\u0131\u015f kal\u0131plar\u0131 otomatik bi\u00e7imde devreye girecektir. Psikolojik zaaf ve tak\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nda olanlar bunlar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facaklar; ama fark\u0131nda olmayan beyinler, olay\u0131 oldu\u011fundan hafif, abart\u0131l\u0131 veya \u00e7arp\u0131k olarak yorumlayacak; patolojik bi\u00e7imde risk almaya ve duygusal karar vermeye yatk\u0131n olacaklard\u0131r… \u00d6rne\u011fin ma\u00e7o’lar, ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerini ve grup kararlar\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almaz; kendi yetkinliklerini kan\u0131tlama, kendilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karma pe\u015findedirler; “\u0130kidir inemedim, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcde pas ge\u00e7tim, art\u0131k d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcde kesin inerim…<\/em>” diye ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorlayabilir, delice ve \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015fler yapabilirler. Ma\u00e7olar\u0131n tam tersi profil \u00e7izen karars\u0131z ve korkak insanlar k\u00f6t\u00fc karar vericilerdir. Bunlar bilgi ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve olaylar\u0131n geli\u015fimini objektif de\u011ferlendiremez, inisiyatif kullanamaz, s\u00fcrekli ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n onay\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duyar; yolcular\u0131n\u0131n isteklerine g\u00f6re dahi karar de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir, inmenin \u00e7ok m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu durumlarda bile pas ge\u00e7ebilirler…<\/p>\n

3. Yanl\u0131\u015f inan\u00e7 ve tutumlar: <\/strong>Bunlar \u00e7ok say\u0131dad\u0131r. Birka\u00e7 \u00f6rnek: A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimserlik (Pollyana’c\u0131l\u0131k)<\/em>, Arzular\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ek sanma (Wishful thinking),<\/em> Yanl\u0131\u015f hipotezler kurma, \u0130lk alg\u0131 ve kararda \u0131srar-inatla\u015fma, Kolay\u0131na ka\u00e7ma, Bo\u015fluklar\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f doldurma, T\u00fcnel alg\u0131s\u0131, vs.<\/p>\n

Bunlardan ilgin\u00e7 bir tanesi de Kumarbaz yan\u0131lg\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r (Gambler fallacy).<\/em> Bu yan\u0131lg\u0131 i\u00e7inde olan insanlar, “3 defa hepyek att\u0131m, art\u0131k bu defa k\u00f6t\u00fc \u015fans bitti, d\u00fc\u015fe\u015f gelir; 7 kez tura att\u0131m, art\u0131k yaz\u0131 gelecektir…” diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrler. Halbuki d\u00fc\u015fe\u015f gelme ihtimali her zar at\u0131\u015fta 1\/36; yaz\u0131 veya tura gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 her seferinde %50\u2019dir. Yani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce repertuar\u0131nda b\u00f6ylesine sihirli dengeler oldu\u011fu yanl\u0131\u015f inanc\u0131n\u0131 bar\u0131nd\u0131ran bir pilot, 3-5 kez olumsuzlukla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ysa, art\u0131k bunun bitip olumluya d\u00f6nece\u011fi beklentisine girip yanl\u0131\u015f karar verebilir.<\/p>\n

4. \u0130ncinmezlik ill\u00fczyonu:<\/strong> Kendisine k\u00f6t\u00fc bir \u015feyler olmayaca\u011f\u0131, \u201csanki hi\u00e7 kaza yapmayaca\u011f\u0131, \u00f6lmeyece\u011fi\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini bilin\u00e7alt\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131yan (\u00f6yle olmas\u0131n\u0131 arzu edip buna da kendini inand\u0131ran) ki\u015filer vard\u0131r ve bunun yayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 %43 civar\u0131nda bulunmu\u015ftur. Bu, savunma mekanizmas\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lan bir pozitif ill\u00fczyondur (invulnerability, invincibility)<\/em>. Bana bir \u015fey olmaz’<\/em>c\u0131lar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcveni g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr tehlikeleri ink\u00e2r etme tutumuna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir; kolayca risk al\u0131r, fel\u00e2ketlerin kenar\u0131nda gezinmeye ba\u015flar. Bu tutum havac\u0131l\u0131kta ma\u00e7o<\/em>, kontrfobik ve impulsif <\/em>pilotlarda olduk\u00e7a s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Yer teknik ekiplerinin, hava trafik kontrol\u00f6rlerinin ve kabin ekiplerinin i\u00e7inde de b\u00f6ylesi tak\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 olan insanlar vard\u0131r ve onlar\u0131n benzer tutumlar\u0131 da ciddi kazalar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k veya gizli kalm\u0131\u015f sebeplerinin haz\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n

5. Rahatl\u0131k:<\/strong> Uzun y\u0131llar\u0131n tecr\u00fcbeleri baz\u0131 insanlarda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 rahatl\u0131k hissi ve tehlikeli bir kendine g\u00fcven duygusu olu\u015fturabilir. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcven (over confidence)<\/em>, gams\u0131zl\u0131k, halinden memnuniyet (complacency) <\/em>ve i\u00e7inde bulunulan kritik durumun gerektirdi\u011fi heyecandan uzak olmak, bir \u00e7e\u015fit fark\u0131ndal\u0131k kayb\u0131 (loss of situational awareness)<\/em> gibidir. Baz\u0131 insanlarda da tevekk\u00fcl (resignation)<\/em> d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi, ‘i\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131na var\u0131r, kadere kar\u015f\u0131 gelinmez’ teslimiyeti g\u00f6zlenir.<\/p>\n

6. Eve D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f Sendromu:<\/strong> \u0130ngilizce’deki “Get-Home-Itis<\/em>” kavram\u0131 T\u00fcrk\u00e7ede, “yetti art\u0131k, bitsin bu \u00e7ile, eve gidelim” bi\u00e7iminde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan, tehlikeli bir acelecilik ve sab\u0131rs\u0131zl\u0131ktan kaynakl\u0131 gereksiz riske girme durumudur. Pilotlar ve di\u011fer s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcler kadar, elindeki kritik i\u015fleri bir an \u00f6nce bitirip \u00f6zel ya\u015fam\u0131ndaki program\u0131na sab\u0131rs\u0131zlanan ba\u015fka i\u015f alanlar\u0131 i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli bir acelecilik tutumudur. Bu psikoloji i\u00e7inde riskler hafife al\u0131nabilir, objektif tehlikeler g\u00f6rmezden gelinebilir…<\/p>\n

7. Aldat\u0131c\u0131 sezgiler:<\/strong> Alt\u0131nc\u0131 his gibi tan\u0131mlar\u0131 olan sezgilere parapsikoloji yaz\u0131lar\u0131nda \u00f6nem atfedilir, ama bilimsel kaynaklar bunlara mesafeli durur. Sezgilerin %80’den fazlas\u0131 yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r, belki ancak %10’u tutar; ama se\u00e7ici bellek bunlar\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek oranda gibi hat\u0131rlar. Sezgilerin \u00e7o\u011fu bilin\u00e7alt\u0131 materyalidir; korkulara, \u00f6nyarg\u0131lara, beklentilere ve paranoyalara g\u00f6re \u015fekillenir; ger\u00e7ek de\u011fildir. Birka\u00e7 kez sezgilerinin tesad\u00fcfen tuttu\u011funu g\u00f6ren baz\u0131 insanlar, art\u0131k kendilerini olacaklar\u0131 \u00f6nceden alg\u0131lama yetene\u011fine sahip sanabilir. “Hissediyorum ki… Tahmin ediyorum ki…” diye ba\u015flayan c\u00fcmleler kurarak, ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek ve davranmak yerine gizemlilik yolunda ilerlemeyi tercih ederler.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\n

Do\u011fu\u015ftan gelen \u00fcst bili\u015f (metacognition)<\/em> ve do\u011fal karar verme becerilerine (naturalistic decision-maker)<\/em> sahip insanlar vard\u0131r, ama bunlar \u00e7ok fazla de\u011fildir. Havac\u0131l\u0131k sistemlerinin \u00f6zen g\u00f6stermesi gereken nokta; egolar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131nda tutabilen, mant\u0131kl\u0131 kararlar veren, gereksiz yere riske girmeyen, unstable durumlarda bask\u0131 g\u00f6rse bile pas ge\u00e7me cesaret ve inisiyatifi kullanabilen ekipler olu\u015fturmakt\u0131r. Bu beceri e\u011fitimle kazan\u0131labilir; liderlik, karar verme ve psikolojik i\u00e7g\u00f6r\u00fc (insight)<\/em> e\u011fitimleri yap\u0131labilir. Do\u011fru karar verme becerisine sahip dengeli insanlar sadece havac\u0131l\u0131kta de\u011fil, ya\u015fam\u0131n her alan\u0131nda kendilerini de beraberindekileri de esenli\u011fe g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr. S\u00f6z\u00fc Shakespeare’in Hamlet’indeki \u015fu tirad ile bitirelim:<\/p>\n

Pas ge\u00e7mek<\/strong> ya da ge\u00e7memek; i\u015fte b\u00fct\u00fcn mesele bu!<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yaz\u0131y\u0131 haz\u0131rlayan :<\/strong> Do\u00e7 Dr Muzaffer \u00c7eting\u00fc\u00e7<\/p>\n

\n

Not: Bu yaz\u0131, 22 Ocak 2014 g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lan 3. Pilotlar \u00c7al\u0131\u015ftay\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f sunum metni olup, sunma imk\u00e2n\u0131 olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1 Haziran 1999 gecesi Dallas’tan kalkan American Airlines\u2019\u0131n MD-82 u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Arkansas – Little Rock meydan\u0131na inmesine saniyeler kala, f\u0131rt\u0131na ve \u00f6n cama gelen yo\u011fun ya\u011fmur y\u00fcz\u00fcnden pist g\u00f6r\u00fclemez hale gelmi\u015fti. Birka\u00e7 saniye sonra pisti g\u00f6ren kaptan, 200 ft irtifada yan r\u00fczg\u00e2rlarla u\u011fra\u015farak pisti ortalamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu arada yere yak\u0131nl\u0131k uyar\u0131 sistemi 2 kez piste \u00e7arpma uyar\u0131s\u0131 verdi. F\/O, kaptana meydan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bulten"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1458","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1458"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1458\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1460,"href":"https:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1458\/revisions\/1460"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1458"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1458"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hvtd.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1458"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}